Home News June14th-July15th: 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP – Do actuaries already know the winner?

June14th-July15th: 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP – Do actuaries already know the winner?

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Four years ago, addactis® and its team of French actuaries ACTUARIS predicted a final Germany – Argentina and the victory of the German team.

This year, the same team relaunches its simulations with the hope of reiterating the top performance of 2014.

After 5 million simulations carried out with the addactis® Modeling software, the method announces:

  • Brazil winner (16.66%). Germany, the title holder, remains well positioned (15.30%) followed by France (13.75%) and Spain (12.60%). For the top 5, Argentina, finalist in 2014 with 10.22% chance.
  • The most likely final is Brazil – Germany (5.49%) ahead of Brazil – Spain (4.56%) and France – Germany (3.88%).
  • Thanks to the results provided by the stochastic models, everybody could compare his/her intuition with some actuarial projection. It is easy to check the probability for a national team to reach each step of the competition (or to quit…). New simulations will be performed at the end of this first phase to refine the predictions before the start of the round of sixteen.

“I am very proud of our team and their ability to model not only insurance but such an unpredictable thing like sport! The success of the predictions they did last time were so amazing! Regarding football, the power of addactis® Modeling software allows us to model each game and each score. We are looking forward to the start of the global calendar to check once again the relevance of the models. The future winner and all the results of his matches have necessarily been simulated and remains unknown what scenario will unfold, it leaves room for the intuition for sports experts, who could also be actuaries… ”   says Pascal MIGNERY, Actuary and CEO of addactis®.

About the actuarial method in football forecasts

The actuarial approach implemented is based on mathematical theories very different from the statistics used by professional or amateur bettors. Rather than looking for the most likely outcome of each match and deducting the qualifiers as they go along, actuaries simulate several million possible scenarios, through the application of the Markov chain Monte Carlo model – and the use of the ADDACTIS® Modeling software. A simulation model reviews all possible cases of the future and the criteria used. This type of model requires, however, to have specific software powerful enough to calculate millions of championships per minute.

Read the whole Press Release with all calculation results here

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